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OPINION
| february 11, 2004
Guest Column
Dean Loses Steam
Though he once stimulated a hard-to-reach
set of voters, Howard Dean is no longer the front-runner for the
Democratic nomination
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| The Shorthorn: Ryan Hartsell |
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By Dr. Rebecca Deen
Contributor to The Shorthorn
What a difference a month makes.
In early January, Howard Dean looked like the candidate to beat
before any votes were cast, before John Kerry’s surge, and
long before the “Dean scream.”
Such is the fickle nature of presidential primaries, frequently
confounding the so-called experts. Given Dean’s worse-than-expected
performances in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary, the
questions are: (1) can he win the nomination? and (2) if he doesn’t
win, what kind of lasting effect, if any, will he have on the 2004
presidential election?
Predicting presidential elections can be as ill-advised as predicting
the World Series outcome in May. As of this writing, only nine states
have held contests, and after the failure of his all-or-nothing
strategy in Iowa and especially New Hampshire, Dean largely skipped
the Feb. 3 contests, looking ahead to Michigan and Wisconsin. However,
new trends have begun to form — trends that don’t bode
well for Dean.
In 2003, Dean had a new, intriguing candidacy with approaches stimulating
a different set of potential voters. In the January issue of Wired,
Gary Wolf said that Dean has re-democratized presidential politics.
Dean’s campaign understood the Internet’s potential
grassroots power and more importantly, he invested in the online
community. Sure, bloggers were turned on by his style, but they
were ecstatic that he listened to them and respected the way they
connect with each other. Dean’s campaign embraced the decentralized
online network (in Wolf’s language, he let the ants do the
work).
Unfortunately for Dean, innovation collided with the old school
realities of Iowa and New Hampshire. This virtual and real network
didn’t translate into votes in Iowa and New Hampshire. As
electoral contests drew closer, undecided voters began to envision
him as the nominee running against President Bush. Faced with a
real decision, voters seemed to be making a strategic calculation
about his electability.
Despite all this, the Democratic National Committee and the eventual
nominee need to ponder the Dean phenomenon. He knows little fear
and hasn’t played by the rules. His passion, his outreach
to those previously politically disenfranchised and his ability
to get them to volunteer and give money have potential to make a
lasting mark.
He is passionate and not afraid to show his anger toward President
Bush, reflecting the frustration that many party faithful feel.
The eventual nominee needs to remember this because his challenge
will be balancing effective use of these emotions to mobilize his
partisan base with sufficient moderation to woo swing voters in
the general election.
Dean has expanded the ranks of the politically active, mobilizing
both volunteers and donors. A look at the fourth quarter 2003 financial
statements, courtesy of www.washingtonpost.com, reveals that Dean
raised even more ($15.7M) than the late-surging Wesley Clark ($10.2M).
Amazingly, Dean was able to get much of his money from small donors.
In that fourth quarter, only 8% of the contributions Dean raised
were from donors who gave the maximum allowed by law ($2000). Compare
that with John Kerry or President Bush, a majority of whose contributions
were donors contributing the maximum (54% and 53% respectively).
These facts bring us back to why former Governor Dean is unlikely
to win the nomination. Yes, Howard Dean has brought new voters,
new money and new energy into the political system. However, it
is that frustration towards President Bush that is Dean’s
undoing. Democrats want to win badly.
Offered a choice between an angry Dean and a newly invigorated and
viable Kerry, voters are choosing Kerry. Kerry’s challenge
will be to harness this emotion and get those “Deaniacs”
behind him. A distinct possibility is that having been enticed by
Dean’s frenetic beat, Dean’s supporters will be unwilling
to slow down to Kerry’s reserved pace. In November, they might
just sit this one out.
—Dr. Rebecca Deen is a political science associate professor.
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